Algeria is grappling with intensified regional pressures due to instability in the Sahel and Libya, alongside frozen relations with Morocco, while its support for Tunisia's president adds to its vulnerabilities.

The rising unrest in Tunisia, which mirrors discontent in Algeria, raises concerns about the potential for a broader regional collapse as both nations face significant internal and external challenges.

Years of under-investment and mismanagement have hindered Algeria's ability to drive economic transformation, forcing it to rely on hydrocarbon revenues merely to maintain social peace.

Algeria's recent diplomatic outreach aims to recalibrate U.S. policy regarding Western Sahara, where U.S. support for Morocco's claim has marginalized Algeria's historical backing for Sahrawi self-determination.

Despite its official stance of non-interference, Algeria's historical alignment with authoritarian regimes like Iran and Syria has left it at odds with the evolving Arab consensus.

With Donald Trump's return to the White House, Arab nations are competing for U.S. favor through substantial investments, including $600 billion from Saudi Arabia and $1.4 trillion from the UAE targeting sectors like AI and energy.

Algeria has recently signed a military agreement with AFRICOM and an energy deal with ExxonMobil, indicating a shift in its traditionally cautious foreign policy driven more by regime anxiety than strategic intent.

The Algerian regime faces a dilemma: necessary economic reforms could dismantle the patronage networks that uphold elite control, while a refusal to reform accelerates the country's decline.

U.S. Congressman Joe Wilson's plans to label the Polisario as terrorists reflect a hardened U.S. narrative that positions Algeria as part of an authoritarian alliance, undermining its role as a supporter of liberation.

The regime, reliant on oil rents and military rule, is described as decaying and out of sync with its allies, resisting change due to fears of accountability and its own populace.

Economic fragility persists in Algeria, with energy exports making up 98% of its economy, yet the country has struggled to adapt to global shifts toward renewable energy.

Maintaining ties with Iran and alignment with groups like Hamas risks deepening Algeria's rift with key Western partners amid increasing geopolitical tensions.

On April 8, 2025, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio reaffirmed U.S. recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, further isolating Algeria diplomatically.