Recent analysis from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlights a notable decline in gasoline consumption in China, coinciding with discussions on global peak oil demand and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs).

China's annual passenger vehicle sales typically range between 20 million and 25 million, and the future market dynamics suggest that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrids will make up a significant portion of the total vehicle fleet.

The EIA emphasizes that the increasing adoption of BEVs and hybrids is likely to have a profound impact on future gasoline consumption patterns in China.

Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts a slowdown in petroleum and liquid fuel consumption growth in China, predicting only 0.1 million barrels per day increase in 2024 and 0.3 million barrels per day in 2025, primarily driven by petrochemical feedstocks rather than transportation fuels.

The CleanTechnica article concludes that oil demand may decline more rapidly than previously expected, largely due to the swift expansion of EV sales in China and the increasing exports of EVs by Chinese manufacturers.

This decrease in gasoline use is attributed to several factors, including a surge in electric vehicle sales, sluggish economic growth, and a declining population.

Forecasts indicate that China's GDP growth will slow to 4.1% by 2025, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic average of 6.7% from 2015 to 2019, suggesting a direct link between economic activity and oil consumption.

The EIA's analysis also points out that the economic slowdown and population decline are contributing to reduced gasoline usage, as fewer miles are driven.

In a striking trend, plug-in vehicles represented over 50% of passenger vehicle sales in China as of October 2024, up from 40% in October 2023, underscoring the rapid growth of the EV market.